Fig. 1: Conceptual figure of the biotic–abiotic factors that can interact with Cronartium ribicola as it moves into higher elevations in response to climate change (sensu the biotic–abiotic-migration (BAM) framework15,109).
From: Nonlinear shifts in infectious rust disease due to climate change
These interactions can further modify the spatial position and shape of the white pine blister rust distribution. Specifically, climate change is predicted to shift the pathogens’ climate optimum in space (a), which could lead to an upslope migration (a.1) (shift in temperature denoted by change in color gradient, hot = red, cold = blue). As the pathogen shifts, emergent abiotic and abiotic interactions can alter the disease distribution. Ongoing and/or climate change-induced increases in stochastic disturbances, like droughts (b), can interact with both the host and the pathogen at different spatial scales. The probability of drought stress, for example, is likely higher at low elevations where water is more limiting, potentially resulting in a skewed distribution (b.1). Additionally, host–pathogen interactions (c), including the varying density and susceptibility of different hosts and/or alternate hosts, can also modify the size and shape of the distribution. Hosts and alternate hosts are also expected to shift at a slower pace than pathogens in response to climate change, resulting in highly lagged impacts on disease prevalence. The combination of these spatially varying drought and host–pathogen interactions can modify disease range shifts to increase or decrease prevalence depending on the direction of the interacting effects (c.1). Mountain figure designed by Zuzanna Drozdz.
