Fig. 1: Sensitivity of IPSL-CM6A-LR over the historical period.
From: Increased risk of near term global warming due to a recent AMOC weakening
a Global mean near-surface air temperature (GSAT) anomaly (K) relative to the 1880–2018 period for the ensemble average (black), individual members (gray), and member #14 (green) of the IPSL ensemble of extended historical simulations (IPSL-EHS), the infilled HadCRUT4-CW41,42 (blue) and the Berkeley45 observational datasets (brown). b The climate sensitivity calculated over the historical period (S_hist, in K) for each individual member of the IPSL-EHS ranked from the lowest to the highest value (see Methods). The black dot-dashed line indicates the ensemble mean of S_hist values and the purple line indicates the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) value13 of the IPSL-CM6A-LR model. c Same as b but for the transient climate response calculated over the historical period (TCR_hist, in K), the purple line indicating the Transient Climate Response (TCR) value13 of IPSL-CM6A-LR. Error bars in b and c are calculated using the lowest and largest values of the forcing due to a doubling in atmospheric CO2 concentration (see Methods for more details).
