Fig. 3: Evaluation of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation fingerprints.
From: Increased risk of near term global warming due to a recent AMOC weakening
a Time evolution of the Caesar index computed as the low-pass filtered sea surface temperature anomaly (K) averaged over the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre from November to May from the ERSSTv5 observational dataset54 (blue), the 32 historical members (gray) with the ensemble mean (black) and member #14 (green). b, Same as a but for the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability index (see Methods). c Same as a but for the Ocean Heat Content (OHC) anomaly (109 J m−2) between 0 and 700 m averaged over the Newfoundland region minus the OHC averaged over the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre region from the IAP observational dataset55,56 (blue) d Same as a but for the interhemispheric near-surface air temperature difference (K), with the HadCRUT4-CW observational dataset41,42 (blue). A Lanczos low-pass filter with a cutoff period of 11 years is used in c and d and the anomalies are computed over the displayed period.
