Fig. 1: Overall sensitivity analysis of vaccine effectiveness (%), based on UK data.

The boxplots show the median and interquartile ranges of the predicted vaccine effectiveness (as a percentage) on each of the outcomes for specific parameters. They were generated by aggregating all model simulations for each of the parameters, with each boxplot summarizing the variance in predicted vaccine efficacy for all possible combinations of the other parameters. The middle line shows the median, the lower and upper hinges correspond to the first and third quartiles, and the whiskers extend to the 5th and 95th percentiles. The full list of explored parameters and their descriptions can be found in Table 1. ATT population attack size (as a % of the population), TRG vaccine allocation (% of the population during study period), DSP second dose administered (% of the vaccinated population administered a second dose), BTI interval between first dose and booster dose, PD2 vaccine efficacy after the second dose; D2B vaccine efficacy of the first dose compared with the second dose (%); VCW immunity wane rate (days following last dose), DEL vaccine delivery speed.