Fig. 5: The impact of disruptions to the scale-up of timely HepB-BD on HBV-related deaths.
From: The impact of the timely birth dose vaccine on the global elimination of hepatitis B
a Mean additional HBV-related deaths in the birth cohorts in 2020-2030 due to a drop in the proportion of new-borns receiving timely HepB-BD in 2020 (the HepB-BD disruptions scenarios) relative to the status quo HepB3 & HepB-BD scenario, with 95% credibility intervals. b Mean additional HBV-related deaths in the birth cohorts in 2020-2030 due to delays in scaling up timely HepB-BD coverage to ≥90% (the delayed HepB-BD scale-up scenarios) relative to scaling up timely HepB-BD coverage to ≥90% between 2020 and 2030 (the HepB-BD scale-up scenario), with 95% credibility intervals. Results are the sums within WHO regions from all modelled countries of n = 200 model outcomes resulting from 200 independent draws from the posterior distribution of each country. The six WHO regions AFRO, EMRO, EURO, PAHO, SEARO, and WPRO are shown in Supplementary Fig. 1. HBV: hepatitis B virus; HepB3: infant HBV vaccine series; timely HepB-BD: timely birth dose; WHO: World Health Organization.
