Table 1 Vaccination scenarios.

From: The impact of the timely birth dose vaccine on the global elimination of hepatitis B

Scenario

Timely birth dose vaccination

Status quo HepB3 & HepB-BD

Maintained at level recorded for 2019, throughout the period 2020–2100.

HepB-BD scale-up scenario: timely HepB-BD expansion to ≥90%a by 2030

Linear expansion from 2019 level to the target valueb by 2030 and maintained at that level until 2100.

HepB-BD disruptions scenario: drop in timely HepB-BD coverage in 2020 by a) 5%, b) 10%, c) 15%, d) 20% due to disruptions associated with COVID-19

Drop of target value in the year 2020 relative to the level recorded for 2019; maintained at level recorded in 2019 in the period 2021–2100.

Delayed HepB-BD scale-up scenario: timely HepB-BD expansion delayed & ≥90% coverage reached over the period a) 2023 to 2030, b) 2023 to 2033, c) 2025 to 2040

Maintained at level recorded for 2019 until starting year of expansion; linear expansion from the level recorded for 2019 to ≥90% over the expansion period and maintained at that level until 2100.

  1. Note: For all scenarios, timely HepB-BD coverage and HepB3 coverage reflect data from WHO/UNICEF Estimates of National Immunization Coverage (https://apps.who.int/immunization_monitoring/globalsummary/timeseries/tswucoveragehepb3.html and https://apps.who.int/immunization_monitoring/globalsummary/timeseries/tswucoveragehepb_bd.html, accessed in July 2020) through to the end of the year 2019, and HepB3 coverage is maintained at the level recorded for 2019 in each country from 2019 to 2100. HBV: hepatitis B virus; HepB3: infant HBV vaccine series; timely HepB-BD: timely birth dose; UNICEF: United Nations Children’s Fund; WHO: World Health Organization.
  2. aNote that results from target values other than ≥90% i.e. ≥25%, ≥50%, ≥75%, are presented in Supplementary Tables 3–6.
  3. bScale-up of coverage is always to the greater of the target expressed or the value recorded for each country in 2019.
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