Fig. 2: Global emission and climate results.

a 1.5 °C and (b) 2 °C scenarios, including total CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels and land-use changes, total non-CO₂ GHG (CH₄, N₂O, HFCs, P.F.C.s, and SF₆) emissions, total radiative forcing, and global mean surface temperature change. Reference assumes no GHG mitigation. CO₂ abatement only cannot achieve the 1.5 °C target under all modeled 1.5 °C pathways but achieves the 2 °C target if reaching net-zero CO₂ by 2030 under 2 °C pathways; CO₂-driven GHG abatement achieves the 1.5 °C target if reaching net-zero CO₂ by 2032 under 1.5 °C pathways or achieves the 2 °C target if reaching net-zero CO₂ by 2045 under 2 °C pathways; Comprehensive GHG abatement achieves the 1.5 °C target if reaching net-zero CO₂ by 2053 under 1.5 °C pathways or achieves the 2 °C target if reaching net-zero CO₂ by 2075 under 2 °C pathways. The faint lines are colored based on non-CO₂ mitigation pathways, representing scenarios with CO₂ emission constraints reaching net-zero in alternative years. Non-CO₂ GHG emissions were aggregated with GWP-100 from ref. ²⁸.