Fig. 3: Counterfactual scenarios compared against baseline calibration and data.

Scenarios are: blue, face coverings not mandated with compliance remaining at base level of 13.0%; purple, work, education and other locations mobility return to baseline levels from 9th July with 60% face coverings compliance; green, work, education, and other locations mobility return to baseline levels from 9th July with face coverings compliance remaining at base level. Data (black dots), median modelled estimates (lines), shaded areas 25th−75th centile (darkest shading), 2.5th−97.5th centile (intermediate shading depth), and 1st to 99th centile (faintest shading) of each indicator for each scenario. 9th July chosen as the date that stage 3 restrictions were imposed. We considered that full compliance with mandatory face coverings would be impractical if workplaces and other locations returned to full capacity (for example, if hospitality was fully re-opened, patrons would not wear masks in all other locations). Base and surge ICU capacity for Victoria presented on lower left panel³⁸.