Fig. 4: Counterfactual scenarios compared against baseline calibration and data.
From: Understanding how Victoria, Australia gained control of its second COVID-19 wave
Scenarios are: purple, face coverings policy introduced two weeks earlier with stage 3; green, stage 4 mobility levels (introduced 2nd August) instead commence from 9th July. Data (black dots), median modelled estimates (lines), shaded areas 25th−75th centile (darkest shading), 2.5th−97.5th centile (intermediate shading depth), and 1st−99th centile (faintest shading) of each indicator for each scenario.
