Fig. 4: Cumulative deaths and number released from social distancing.

The top row shows cumulative deaths by location (panels) by daily testing rate from March 2020 to February 2021 for the scenario with 5:1 shielding, with schools reopening on September 1, 2020 in South Florida and October 1, 2020 in Washington and New York. Colored lines show test specificity. The gray horizontal line shows the number of deaths in the no-testing scenario for each location. The bottom row shows the fraction of the population of each metropolitan area released from social distancing by June 1, 2021, assuming 5:1 shielding. Line colors correspond to testing levels; blue is monthly testing (10 million tests/day) of the U.S. population. Dashed lines show expected results with a highly specific test (specificity = 99.8%) and solid lines show expected results with a test with 90% specificity. The 99.8% specificity scenario represents the accuracy reported among antibody tests currently authorized for use in the U.S., whereas the 90% specificity scenario is meant to capture reductions in accuracy that might result from the implementation of a mass testing program. The 50% specificity level represents a scenario in which an antibody test cannot distinguish between immune and non-immune individuals.