Fig. 8: Estimates of the global selection coefficient, from the hierarchical population-genetic model, for each variant for differing amounts of data.

(When only one country was present in the data, the nonhierarchical equivalent model was fit instead.) Dates show the first day on which that corresponding number of cases of that variant was first reached globally; they are the time horizon to which the data were cut back for that estimate. The number of days of data is measured from the time horizon back to a first day for each variant: 2020-01-04 for D614G, 2020-09-20 for B.1.1.7, 2020-10-01 for B.1.351, and 2020-10-24 for R.1. Points mark the median, and thick and thin lines are 50% and 95% CrIs, respectively.