Fig. 2: Impact of the vaccination program during the first half of 2021.
From: The effect of COVID-19 vaccination in Italy and perspectives for living with the virus
A Estimated active social contacts on June 30, 2021, as a proportion of pre-pandemic contacts, with and without a vaccination program, under the constraint that the two scenarios reproduce the same observed epidemic trajectory. Bars: mean estimates; vertical lines: 95% CI; n = 300 stochastic model realizations. B Number of additional COVID-19 deaths between December 27, 2020, and June 30, 2021, total and by age group, under a no-vaccination scenario. Bars: mean estimates; vertical lines: 95% CI; n = 300 stochastic model realizations. C Effective reproduction number (i.e., under complete resumption of pre-pandemic contacts) on June 30, 2021, with and without vaccination. Bars: mean estimates; vertical lines: 95% CI; n = 300 stochastic model realizations.
