Table 1 Description and assumptions of key model parameters.

Cobalt intensity

The cobalt intensity of different battery cathode materials varies by each type^43,78,79 and is assumed to remain at the current level in the future.

Supplementary Table 6

Battery cathode material market share

The cathode materials of the state-of-the-art battery cathode technologies are assumed to shift from NMC-111 toward NCA and NMC-811^19,68,75. The low-cobalt battery cathode technologies (NMC-9.5.5 and advanced NCA)^71,80, new LFP¹⁰, and next-generation cobalt-free technologies^28,81 are assumed to gradually penetrate the market from 2020, 2020, and 2030, respectively, replacing the state-of-the-art technologies, and then further approaching 100% by 2050.

Supplementary Figs. 6–8, Supplementary Table 6

The share of BEV/PHEV in EV sales

PHEV is assumed to transform gradually to BEV, and BEV will dominate the EV market in the future⁸².

Supplementary Figs. 11, 12, Supplementary Table 9

Battery capacity of BEV/PHEV

The battery capacity for PHEV and BEV are both assumed to increase based on the prediction of IEA⁸² that considers regional differences in battery technology roadmaps.

Supplementary Figs. 13, 14, Supplementary Table 9

EV market share

The EV market share is assumed to increase based on the prediction of IEA⁸², which considers regional differences in carbon mitigation ambitions and existing EV policies.

Supplementary Figs. 15, 16, Supplementary Table 9

Vehicle ownership

Vehicle ownership is assumed to grow or level off based on regional historical levels, their potential socioeconomic development, and mobility as a service pattern.

Supplementary Figs. 17, 18, Supplementary Table 9

ESS stock

The global ESS stock is assumed to grow, based on the literature^76,83,84, with regional proportions set according to per capita renewable electricity generation⁸⁵.

Supplementary Fig. 19, Supplementary Table 9

Battery lifetime

The average lifetimes of B-PEV, B-EB, and B-ESS are assumed to be 8³², 7⁷⁵, and 10⁷⁶ years, respectively, in the base scenario. Their lifetimes are assumed to double in the extending battery lifetime scenario⁷⁷ enabled by technology innovation.

Supplementary Table 7

Recycling rate

The recycling rates for each end use are assumed to rise by 10% in 2050 based on the historical levels^32,86 in the base scenario and to approach 95% by 2050 for all recyclable end uses in the high recycling rate scenario. The recycling rate for each region is assumed the same.

Supplementary Fig. 9, Supplementary Table 8

Cobalt stock per capita for traditional end uses

Assumptions are based on the historical cobalt stock levels and potential technology changes considering regional differences.

Supplementary Table 10

Population

The predicted population per region is based on the World Population Prospects 2019 published by the United Nations Population Division⁸⁷.

Supplementary Table 10

Primary supply

The primary cobalt supply from ore from 2020 to 2030 and afterward is based on previous research⁴¹ and categorized as two (base and high) scenarios.

Supplementary Fig. 10