Fig. 3: Equatorial Pacific climatology and projected changes, as simulated by CESM-LENS.

Two-year repeated monthly climatology of a sea surface temperature [°C], b thermocline depth [m], and c precipitation [mm/day], averaged 5°S-5°N during 1951–2000. Panels d–f show the projected change in climatology, 2051–2100 minus 1951–2000. The monthly climatology is computed as a time mean (for each calendar month) of the ensemble mean of all 30 ensemble members. Hatching indicates where the differences are statistically significant at the 95^th percentile, based on a bootstrapping technique (see Methods). g A typical example illustrating the relationship between WWBs [contours, N m⁻²] and the resulting downwelling equatorial Kelvin wave forcing [color shading, N m⁻¹] as estimated using Eq. 2. h Daily climatology of the downwelling equatorial Kelvin wave forcing for the 20^th (blue) and 21^st (red) Century integrated across the Pacific (Eq. 2). The thick lines represent the ensemble mean, while the shading corresponds to the ensemble spread (full min-max intra-ensemble range).