Fig. 2: Between-host model based on susceptible, infected, recovered, and again susceptible (SIRS) framework allows to reproduce respiratory tract infection (RTI) incidence during non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to mitigate COVID-19 pandemic. | Nature Communications

Fig. 2: Between-host model based on susceptible, infected, recovered, and again susceptible (SIRS) framework allows to reproduce respiratory tract infection (RTI) incidence during non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to mitigate COVID-19 pandemic.

From: Modeling the disruption of respiratory disease clinical trials by non-pharmaceutical COVID-19 interventions

Fig. 2

a Schematic of implemented SIRS model where NPI can be modeled by a decrease of the transmission rate. b Comparison of model predictions (dashed lines) and data (solid lines) from Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP)41 for RTI weekly incidence (per 100,000 all ages) for the 5 years average (green) and 2020 (orange). Lockdown was started on the 23th of March 2020 in the UK. This date was used to implement the lockdown in the simulations with a decrease of 17.5% of the transmission rate.

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