Table 1 Median absolute percentage errors (MdAPEs) for prediction of new daily hospitalizations, across the first pandemic wave (June 8–July 3, 2020), the summer period (July 4–October 18, 2020), and the second pandemic wave (October 19–November 29, 2020).

From: App-based COVID-19 syndromic surveillance and prediction of hospital admissions in COVID Symptom Study Sweden

 

Median absolute percentage errors (%)

 

First wave June 8–July 3, 2020

Summer period July 4–October 18, 2020

Second wave October 19–November 29, 2020

All 21 regions combined

37.0

48.2

42.4

Top 5 most populated regionsa

25.9

38.6

26.8

Blekinge

41.4

67.6

55.8

Dalarna

58.5

49.4

47.7

Gotland

48.3

83.5

49.2

Gävleborg

29.4

54.1

44.0

Halland

39.4

49.8

73.4

Jämtland

31.9

74.5

51.6

Jönköping

32.4

45.5

28.5

Kalmar

52.5

53.7

44.7

Kronoberg

53.4

69.4

52.5

Norrbotten

40.3

50.3

68.6

Skåne

24.3

46.8

18.9

Stockholm

12.2

31.6

16.6

Södermanland

54.2

37.6

44.8

Uppsala

40.5

60.1

31.1

Värmland

41.0

55.1

43.7

Västerbotten

60.9

48.2

34.2

Västernorrland

36.3

54.1

42.9

Västmanland

39.3

49.1

30.2

Västra Götaland

20.4

35.3

22.4

Örebro

27.0

46.1

67.9

Östergötland

55.2

40.2

43.9

  1. The iterative prediction model used current regional COVID Symptom Study Sweden prevalence estimates and hospital data to predict hospital admissions 7 days ahead.
  2. aStockholm, Västra Götaland, Skåne, Östergötland, Uppsala.