Fig. 5: The constrained projection and narrowed uncertainty of Afro-Asian summer monsoon precipitation.
From: Observationally constrained projection of Afro-Asian monsoon precipitation
a The constrained precipitation (shading, mm day−1) and wind at 850 hPa (UV850; vector, m s−1; vectors drawn for larger than 0.1 m s−1) based on the reconstruction of observed PC1, and (b) the constrained effect represented by the difference between constrained and unconstrained multi-model ensemble (MME). The constrained effect of precipitation in b is represented by the percentage (%) relative to the absolute values of unconstrained MME. Before calculating the fraction of constrained effect in b, the unconstrained MME are set as 0.05 mm day−1 over the regions where the absolute values of unconstrained MME are lower than 0.05 mm day−1. c Probability distribution function (PDF) of unconstrained (black) and constrained (blue) PC1. The values on the right corner are the narrowed variance due to emergent constraint. The values in the parenthesis are the mean and the standard deviation.
