Fig. 2: Estimating cumulative attack rates and reinfection rates of SARS-CoV-2 in Iran.

a Modelled cumulative nationwide attack rate of SARS-CoV-2 and b percentage of individuals reinfected over time. In both a and b, shaded area in black shows the estimated quantities from the three sets of model assumptions used for estimating attack rates. The central line shows the central scenario and bands show the range reflected by the optimistic and worst-case scenarios. c Per-capita excess mortality per age-group according to the transmission model (green) and observed data (red). The green line shows the model output for the median excess mortality according to the central model fit and the shaded area shows the 95% confidence intervals for the model estimate. The red line shows the excess mortality estimates based on the linear regression model with central line and shaded area representing the median and 95% forecast intervals for weekly excess mortality. d Cumulative attack rate of SARS-CoV-2 per province as of 2021-10-22.