Fig. 2: Simulated linear trends of the winter SIC, sea-ice drift, and surface atmospheric and oceanic circulation in the Barents-Kara Sea for 1970–2017 for the NAGA and HIST experiments.

Linear trends of DJF mean SIC [% decade⁻¹] (colors) and sea-ice drift [cm s⁻¹ decade⁻¹] (vectors) for a NAGA and b the difference (NAGA minus HIST). The hatching and black vectors in a, b indicate statistically significant linear trend for NAGA. c, d As in a and b, but for surface air temperature at 2 m height [°C decade⁻¹] (colors), 10 m wind [m s⁻¹ decade⁻¹] (vector), and sea level pressure [hPa decade⁻¹] (contours). The contour interval is 0.1. Solid (dashed) contours are positive (negative) trend. e, f As in a and b, but for SST [°C decade⁻¹] (colors) and surface ocean currents [cm s⁻¹ decade⁻¹] (vector). Black dashed lines indicate transects in which potential temperature and horizontal heat transports are investigated in Fig. 3.