Fig. 1: Simulation 1 (degassing + fixed carbon recycling) results (n = 10,000) and successful model results from Simulation 2 (degassing + dynamic carbon recycling).
From: Marine siliceous ecosystem decline led to sustained anomalous Early Triassic warmth
Color bars indicate the frequency (normalized) of the results, 68% of the values are within the dashed lines. Model time of 5 Myrs marks the initiation of volcanic carbon release and the onset of extinction. Range of parameters explored: carbon release = 30,000–55,000 Pg; release duration = 0.8 × 105–0.24 × 106 years; and climate sensitivity = 2–5 °C (Supplementary Tables 2 and 3). A, C carbon released from solid earth (volcanic) and sedimentary metamorphic degassing fluxes (Tmol/yr); B, D temperature anomaly, compared to sea surface temperature reconstructions (blue circles)2,32,33 with age constraints based on refs. 9,87; E pCO2 (times preindustrial atmospheric level (×PIAL)); F surface pH; G surface-dissolved Si (mM); and H biogenic, I inorganic, and J authigenic clay silica export fluxes (Tmol/yr); K frw_m-a; L residence time of carbon normalized to the background value. Unfiltered results (n = 10,000) for Simulation 2 are presented in Supplementary Figs. 6 and 7.
