Table 1 Institutional scenario characteristics—claims, time horizon and gas coverage.

Equinor¹⁹ (Rebalance)

The stated cumulative emissions starting from 2018, through to 2050, are assumed to be 740 Gt CO₂ in this scenario and this is claimed to be consistent with holding warming well below 2 °C.

2050

Energy CO₂

Shell¹⁵ (Sky 1.5)

The carbon budget for this scenario is assessed to be relatively higher than IPCC estimates (747 Gt CO₂), yet it is still claimed to be consistent with holding warming to 1.5 °C in 2100 with a high temporary overshoot.

2100

Energy CO₂

Industrial Process CO₂

AFOLU CO2

CH₄

N2O

HFCs

PFCs

SF₆

BP¹⁶ (Rapid)

This scenario is assessed to be consistent with scenarios that hold warming well below 2 °C in 2100. The assessment is performed by comparing the relative reduction in CO₂ emissions from energy use.

2050

Energy CO₂

BP¹⁶ (Net Zero)

This scenario is assessed to be consistent with scenarios that hold warming to 1.5 °C. The assessment is performed by comparing the relative reduction in CO₂ emissions from energy use.

2050

Energy CO₂

IEA¹⁷ (SDS)

The IEA presents a conditional assessment for the warming outcome of the scenario. If emissions stay at zero after 2070 the scenario is claimed to hold warming to 1.65 °C or less and this is assessed to be consistent with holding warming well below 2 °C. If net-negative emissions are deployed, warming under the SDS is assessed to be below 1.5 °C with a 50% chance in 2100.

2040

Energy and Industrial Process CO₂

IEA¹⁸ (NZE)

The IEA presents a conditional assessment for the warming outcome of the scenario. Assuming a proportional reduction in non-CO₂ emissions, the scenarios is assessed to be consistent with a 50% chance of holding warming below 1.5 °C without a temporary overshoot.

2050

Energy and Industrial Process CO₂