Table 2 Key climate outcomes for assessed institutional pathways using MAGICC with the Quantile Rolling Windows (QRW) infilling method.

From: Institutional decarbonization scenarios evaluated against the Paris Agreement 1.5 °C goal

Source

Scenario

Median Level of Peak Warming

Median Year of Peak Warming

SR1.5 Climate category

P1.5 °C Max

P2 °C Max

(2100)

(2100)

Equinor

Rebalance

1.73 °C

2060

Lower 2 °C

78%

23%

     

(64%)

(20%)

Shell

Sky

1.81 °C

2059

Lower 2 °C

86%

29%

     

(60%)

(17%)

BP

Rapid

1.73 °C

2058

Lower 2 °C

78%

23%

     

(61%)

(18%)

BP

Net zero

1.65 °C

2049

1.5 °C high overshoot

71%

16%

     

(36%)

(9%)

IEA

SDS

1.68 °C

2056

Lower 2 °C

73%

19%

     

(55%)

(14%)

IEA

NZE

1.56 °C

2045

1.5 °C low overshoot

58%

11%

     

(18%)

(4%)

  1. The SR1.5 categories are based on the criteria discussed in the text. The final two columns provide the maximum and end-of-century (in parentheses) exceedance probabilities of 1.5 °C and 2 °C.
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