Fig. 6: Synthetic power demand in agreement with empirical data.
From: Data-driven load profiles and the dynamics of residential electricity consumption
a We display a brief trajectory of the real (blue), H0 SLP (black) and the new ALP (orange). The ALP curve overall keeps closer to the real consumption values than the H0 SLP does. b The histogram of the power mismatch ΔP = ∣P(real) − P(model)∣ shows higher deviations of the demand for the H0 SLP compared to the ALP. We also report the mean-squared error (MSE) of the H0 SLP and the ALP. c Combining the trend extraction via EMD to obtain the ALP and the superstatistical model for demand fluctuations (DLP) approximates the real consumption histogram very well, in particular for large consumption values. All trajectories use the same time stamps, starting 15 min past midnight on 15th of April of the NOVAREF data from test set. The histograms return almost identical results for other weeks.
