Fig. 5: Maximum lagged correlations when the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation index (AMOCmax) leads the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability index (AMVF) index in 12 members of Community Earth System Model Last Millennium Ensemble (CESM-LME).

Squares correspond to the maximum lagged correlation when AMOCmax leads the AMVF index. Orange, red, and blue colors indicate 90%, 95%, and 99% confidence levels, respectively. White points indicate no significance at the 90% confidence level. Numbers in each point indicate the timestep where the maximum cross-correlation is reached. All time series are smoothed with a 10-year kernel filter. Exact cross-correlation functions for each member are given in Supplementary Fig. 18.