Fig. 1: Emergence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) sea surface temperature (SST) variability change from noise. | Nature Communications

Fig. 1: Emergence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) sea surface temperature (SST) variability change from noise.

From: Emergence of changing Central-Pacific and Eastern-Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation in a warming climate

Fig. 1: Emergence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) sea surface temperature (SST) variability change from noise.The alternative text for this image may have been generated using AI.

Shown is an illustrative example from GFDL-ESM4, a climate model able to realistically simulate non-linear ENSO characteristics (see Supplementary Fig. 1). a Spatial pattern of eastern-Pacific (EP) ENSO, obtained by regressing grid-point SST anomalies (°C) onto E-index over the whole period from piControl to 2100. b Evolution of E-index variability (black solid line; s.d.) relative to its mean pre-industrial level (dashed black line), in a 70-year sliding window moving forward by 1 year from the start of piControl and recorded at the last year of the time window. The red star marks the time of emergence (ToE) of E-index variability out of its internal variation bound, measured by two standard deviations (STD) of the 70-year running variability in piControl (grey shading), and remaining outside thereafter. c, d Same as a, b, respectively, but for C-index. Results shown here are based on the RCP85/SSP585 scenario for a future warming climate.

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