Fig. 3: El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) time of emergence (ToE) determined by magnitude of sea surface temperature (SST) variability change. | Nature Communications

Fig. 3: El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) time of emergence (ToE) determined by magnitude of sea surface temperature (SST) variability change.

From: Emergence of changing Central-Pacific and Eastern-Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation in a warming climate

Fig. 3: El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) time of emergence (ToE) determined by magnitude of sea surface temperature (SST) variability change.

a, b Inter-model relationship between ToE and Signal-to-Noise-Ratio (SNR) in models (symbols; name of CMIP5 models in black, name of CMIP6 models in purple) that show ToE before 2100 for a E-index and b C-index. c Contrast of SNR between E-index (X-axis) and C-index (Y-axis). Number on the top left, or bottom right, indicates the number of models showing larger SNR of C-index, or E-index, respectively. d Inter-model relationship between E-minus-C difference of signal and E-minus-C difference of SNR. For comparison, noise levels are shown in grey filled circles. Here we focus on the 60–80-year window. Signal is calculated as the 1960–2030 E-index or C-index variability change from the mean level of 60–80-year windowed variability in piControl, and noise is defined as one standard deviation (s.d.) of the 60–80-year windowed variability in piControl. Linear fits (solid lines) are displayed in a, b, d together with correlation coefficient R and corresponding p-value. Results shown here are based on the RCP85/SSP585 scenario for a future warming climate.

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