Fig. 1: The emergent relationship in model simulations.
From: Constraining extreme precipitation projections using past precipitation variability
Inter-model correlation between the present-day precipitation (pr5d) variability and the probability ratio of extreme precipitation changes under a 3 °C global warming increment in the joint ensemble of CMIP5 and CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phases 5 and 6) using Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5-8.5 (SSP5-8.5) scenario projections, respectively. Different seasons are considered, for March-to-May (MAM; a), June-to-August (JJA; b), September-to-November (SON; c) and December-to-February (DJF; d). Here extreme precipitation is defined as those exceeding the 95th percentile in the baseline (R95); probability ratio of extreme precipitation is measured by the ratio of occurrence probability in the future period and the baseline; precipitation variability is measured by the difference between the 95th and 50th percentile precipitation events (R95-R50). Statistically significant correlations at the 0.05 level are stippled (evaluated using a two-tailed t-test, assuming different models are independent).
