Fig. 2: The critical role of circulation in determining observed GrIS surface mass/energy balance over 1980–2018 as simulated by the nudging experiment.

Comparisons between the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) spatial-averaged surface energy balance (SEB) anomaly time series in ERA5 (blue), EBAF satellite product (green, Methods), the nudging experiment (Exp, orange) and the CESM-LE (grey shading and black line for the ensemble mean) for a summer (June–July–August, JJA) and b for annual means. Comparison between ERA5 (blue), the nudging experiment (Exp, orange) and the CESM-LE (grey shading and black line for the ensemble mean) GrIS spatial-averaged precipitation for c JJA and d the annual means. Panel e shows the MAR-simulated GrIS surface mass balance (SMB) anomalies for JJA along with f showing the comparison of annual SMB between MAR and the nudging experiment involving CISM-Glimmer. In the legends, ‘r()’ indicates the correlation coefficients between the corresponding variable and the one in the bracket.