Fig. 7: Application of linear model to forced changes in ice production.
From: Rise and fall of sea ice production in the Arctic Ocean’s ice factories
a Ensemble-mean winter sea ice production in CESM-LE (black line), and reconstruction of ensemble mean using regressions trained on internal variability over the 20C run (light blue line), RCP8.5 run (light orange line) and full 1920–2080 timeseries (heavy blue line). Uncertainty windows derived from 40 reconstruction estimates using the regression coefficients associated with each model run (grey dots, Fig. 5): the window is the 1 standard deviation envelope. b Contribution to the reconstruction made by each component of the linear model, when trained upon internal variability from the full timeseries, plotted relative to the first winter (1920/1921).
