Fig. 8: Application of linear model to historical changes.
From: Rise and fall of sea ice production in the Arctic Ocean’s ice factories
Changes in winter ice production in the Kara-Laptev seas plotted relative to the first winter of the reconstruction (1982/1983). The estimate uses climate variables from observation-based estimates and the linear model trained on CESM-LE internal variability. Data are plotted with respect to the new year of the winter in question. Dashed line is the result of using NOAA OI V2 SST product, while the solid line uses HadISST. Shaded uncertainty windows are derived from the one standard deviation spreads of the corresponding estimates using the 40 sets of regression coefficients from individual models (see Fig. 5). Full interannual evolution is plotted in (a) and 10-year moving means are plotted in (b). ‘Div’ is short for divergence; ʻcomp’ for compensated.
