Fig. 3: Expected future diversity for bats and non-volant mammals on Madagascar.
From: The macroevolutionary impact of recent and imminent mammal extinctions on Madagascar
Two scenarios are shown: return time from current to pre-human diversity (left panels); and return time to contemporary diversity if species classified as threatened by the IUCN in 2021 go extinct (right panels). Based on fitting the M26 model to 1000 trees from the posterior distribution of the main dataset, D1. The evolutionary return time (ERT) for each tree is the time it takes to go from the start diversity to the target diversity (e.g. red horizontal line to orange horizontal line in the bottom right plot). The vertical shaded area shows the 2.5–97.5 percentile of the ERT values based on the posterior distribution of trees.
