Fig. 3: Temporal estimates of forward serial intervals (SIs), forward incubation periods (IPs) of infectees, and backward IPs of infectors. | Nature Communications

Fig. 3: Temporal estimates of forward serial intervals (SIs), forward incubation periods (IPs) of infectees, and backward IPs of infectors.

From: Inferring time-varying generation time, serial interval, and incubation period distributions for COVID-19

Fig. 3

a Empirical mean and inter-quartile range (IQR) of forward SI. The black dots and segments represented the empirical mean and IQR, respectively. Red arrow indicates lockdown in Wuhan and the implementation of public health social measures (PHSMs) since January 23, 2020. Sample size (number of transmission pairs) in each time window (X-axis from left to right) for empirical mean and IQR of SI referenced by infector onset: 116, 110, 146, 191, 218, 248, 257, 275, 291, 295, 270, 265, 231, 218, 188, 166, 163, respectively. b The estimated mean of forward IP of infectees (in red) and backward IP of infectors (in teal). The dots and segments indicated the mean estimates and the corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Sample size (number of infectors with complete exposure information) in each time window (X-axis from left to right) for estimating means and 95%CIs of infector’s IP referenced by infector onset: 25, 21, 24, 32, 36, 41, 44, 47, 51, 61, 59, 52, 50, 46, 43, 37, 34, respectively. Sample size (number of infectees with complete exposure information) in each time window (X-axis from left to right) for estimating means and 95%CIs of infectee’s IP referenced by infector onset: 62, 62, 90, 118, 134, 147, 155, 167, 173, 176, 157, 145, 123, 110, 87, 76, 70, respectively.

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