Fig. 8: Tropical changes in hot day probabilities.
From: Quantifying the role of variability in future intensification of heat extremes
a Multimodel hot-day probabilities (exceedance probabilities EP-99th) averaged over tropical oceans (TOs, non-land grid points in 30S-30N) and tropical lands (TLs, land-only grid points in 30S-30N), as a function of changes in global-mean surface air temperature (GSAT). Gray dots denote the intermodel spread. b Distributions of fractional changes in hot day probabilities (FCEP-99th) across models, averaged over TOs and the globe (top panel), and over TLs and the global land (bottom), at fixed levels of warming. c Multimodel fractional changes in hot day probabilities over land (ocean changes are masked) at +2K warming. All results are based on the high-end scenario SSP5-8.5.
