Table 3 Description of the simulated trials

From: Forecasting individual progression trajectories in Alzheimer’s disease

Clinical trial description

Inclusion/exclusion criteria

Primary outcome (annual rate of change of…)

Trial duration window

Inspiration from existing AD trial (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier)

Participants at risk of AD onset

- Age [59.9, 76.1]

- CDR global = 0

- MMSE ≥ 24

− 1 risk factor of:

> Homozygous APOE-ε4

> Heterozygous APOE-ε4

& Amyloid+ (*)

MMSE

4 years

± 12 months

Novartis

Generation S2 (NCT03131453)

Preclinical AD with high brain amyloid levels

- Age [54.9, 81.1]

- CDR global = 0

- MMSE ≥ 27

- Amyloid+ (*)

ADAS-Cog13

4 years

± 12 months

Eisai

AHEAD A45 (NCT04468659)

Early AD with high brain amyloid levels

- Age [49.9, 86.1]

- CDR global = 0.5

- MMSE ≥ 24

- Amyloid+ (*)

- MMSE

- CDR-SB

1.5 years

± 6 months

Biogen

EMERGE / ENGAGE (NCT02477800 & NCT02484547)

Early AD with high brain tau levels

- Age [54.9, 81.1]

- CDR global = 0.5

- p-Tau+ (*)

ADAS-Cog13

4.5 years

± 6 months

Janssen

Autonomy

(NCT04619420)

MCI probably due to AD or mild AD

- Age [54.9, 86.1]

- CDR global = 0.5 or 1

- From AD data sets

MMSE

3 years

± 9 months

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  1. Six trials were simulated because we considered two possible primary outcomes for the trial targeting early Alzheimer’s disease (AD) with high brain amyloid levels (third row). MCI mild cognitive impairment, AD Alzheimer’s disease.
  2. *CSF or PET (worst visit to date).