Fig. 5: Subseasonal forecasts of extreme temperature and atmospheric blocking.
From: The unprecedented Pacific Northwest heatwave of June 2021
Fraction of ensemble members that predicted 2 m temperature (a–e) and number of blocked days (f–j) greater than the 95th percentile of the respective climatologies during 25 June to 1 July. For a 95th percentile event, 0.05 is the statistically expected value if there is no forecasting skill. Forecasts were initialized on 3 June (a, f), 7 June (b, g), 10 June (c, h), 14 June (d, i), and 17 June (e, j). Gray contours show the observed location of the heatwave based on ERA5 2 m temperature data.
