Fig. 2: Global distribution of soil moisture regimes and their shifts under global warming.

Soil moisture (SM) regimes at each grid cell determined by the multi-model mode of the selected segmented regression candidate (a) among the five depicted regressions (b): wet regime (a.k.a. energy-limited; green), transitional regime (purple), dry + transitional (a.k.a. moisture-limited; brown), transitional + wet (yellow), and dry + transitional + wet (blue). For the candidate schematics on the left, soil moisture (SM) increases along the x-axis, and the evaporation rate (LE) increases along the y-axis. In the global map (60°S–60°N), the color of each grid cell represents the elected candidate from the pre-industrial climate and the cross color (over the square color) indicates a new candidate emerging in a warming climate at that grid cell. The alluvial diagram (c) shows the shift in the coverage of each candidate, calculated as the percentage of the global land area between 60°S to 60°N. (Source data are provided as a Source Data file⁷⁸).