Fig. 2: Contribution of different factors to the forced warming pattern.

Time series of each term of vertically integrated (0–65 m) ocean heat budget equation over the a Arabian Sea (AS) from 1850–2100 for 50 ensemble members (please see the “Methods” for more details). Inset plot (i) in (a) shows the time series of each component of surface air-sea flux (positive values represent anomalous heat input into the ocean) components such as shortwave radiation (Q_sw), longwave radiation (Q_lw), sensible heat flux (Q_sh), latent heat flux (Q_lh)_, and net surface air-sea flux (Q_net) and (ii) represents the time series of vertically integrated individual advection terms such as zonal (X_adv), meridional (Y_adv) and vertical (Z_adv) advection. Note that IO mean is removed from each area-averaged time series over the AS. All the time series are relative to the 1850–2014 baseline, and finally, the 15-years running mean is calculated. b Same as (a) but for Southeastern IO (SEIO). Thick (thin) lines represent the ensemble mean (individual ensemble members) in all the plots.