Fig. 4: Internal climate variability can obscure forced changes in intervariable dependence.
From: Advancing research on compound weather and climate events via large ensemble model simulations
a Ensemble mean (MPI-GE model) change in Spearman correlation (ΔρS) between summertime mean temperature and mean precipitation in a 2 °C warmer world relative to preindustrial conditions. b Uncertainty in ΔρS due to internal climate variability (twice the standard deviation of ΔρS across ensemble members, i.e. 2 ⋅ UIV; see Methods). c, d ΔρS of the ensemble members associated with the 5th and 95th percentiles amongst all the members, respectively, ranked by ΔρS averaged over Central Europe.
