Fig. 4: Proportion of stochastic simulations reaching elimination upon treating infected travellers and reducing transmission rates across Zanzibar.

The central line is the proportion of n = 500 simulations that reached elimination (3 years with zero indigenous infections). The shaded area indicates 95% confidence interval (calculated assuming a binomial proportion using a Normal approximation interval). We assume that only the baseline interventions (RCD for 35% of cases arriving at a health facility at the index household level only) are present and then simulate reducing the malaria transmission rate on Zanzibar and treating a proportion of infections imported from mainland Tanzania.