Fig. 4: Landfalling extreme atmospheric river (EAR) response to anthropogenic warming in High Resolution Community Earth System Model (HR CESM).

Normalized accumulated integrated water vapor transport (IVT, kg/m/s) associated with landfalling EARs in the North Pacific (NP) (a), North Atlantic (NA) (c) and South Pacific (SP) (e) simulated in historical simulations (HR-HIS) and the corresponding differences between future simulations (HR-RCP) and HR-HIS (b, d, f). g–l as for a–f, but for precipitation (mm/day). The maximum value for each figure is labeled on the top right. Calculation details of EAR IVT and precipitation are given in Methods. The difference above 95% confidence level based on a two-sided Student’s test is shaded by gray dots. Probability distribution functions (PDFs) of relative differences of landfalling EARs’ length (m 103 km), width (n 103 km) and area (o 105 km2) between HR-RCP and HR-HIS in reference to HR-HIS for the NP, NA and SP, respectively. Source data are provided as a Source Data file.