Fig. 5: SARS-CoV-2 transmission in June–October 2020.
From: Using mortuary and burial data to place COVID-19 in Lusaka, Zambia within a global context
Transmission model fit to burial registrations by a week and b 5-year age group during 15th June–4th October 2020, c Lusaka population-level polymerase chain reaction (PCR) prevalence and seroprevalence (sero) surveys, and post-mortem PCR prevalence at UTH with 95% binomial confidence intervals by d week and e 5-year age group during 15th June–4th October 2020, showing total positive (+ve) deaths, delineated by causal and non-causal COVID-19 deaths. Lines and ribbons in panels (a–e) show median and 95% credible intervals of 100 samples. Transmissibility through time is given in f with the time-varying reproduction number \({R}_{0}(t)\), and effective reproduction number \({R}_{{{{{{\rm{eff}}}}}}}\) as a comparable measure incorporating the impact of population immunity (shown at 50% and 95% credible intervals of 100 samples) such that a value greater than one indicates a growing epidemic.
