Table 1 Excess burial registrations and mortality estimates in Lusaka

	2020		2020–June 2021
	Median	95% CrI	Median	95% CrI
Excess
Burial Registrations^a	1651	1209–2078	2332	1719–2924
Mortality^b: 100% capture^c	2898	2031–3953	3,977	2931–5205
*Mortality: 90% capture*	3220	2256–4393	4419	3257–5783
Mortality: 80% capture	3622	2538–4942	4971	3664–6506
Excess per million
Burial Registrations	644.1	471.6–810.7	909.7	670.6–1140.7
Mortality: 100% capture	1130.5	792.3–1542.1	1551.5	1143.4–2030.5
*Mortality: 90% capture*	1256.2	880.1–1713.8	1723.9	1270.6–2256.0
Mortality: 80% capture	1413.0	990.1–1713.8	1939.3	1429.4–2538.1
% of increase in registrations/deaths relative to pre-pandemic levels
Burial Registrations	10.5	7.7–13.3	10.3	7.6–12.9
*Mortality (irrespective of capture)*	18.5	13.0–25.2	17.6	13.0–23.0
DVWI
Burial Registrations	0.589	0.431–0.742	0.832	0.613–1.043
Mortality: 100% capture	1.034	0.725–1.411	1.419	1.046–1.857
*Mortality: 90% capture*	1.149	0.805–1.568	1.577	1.162–2.064
Mortality: 80% capture	1.293	0.906–1.763	1.774	1.308–2.322

^a‘Burial registration’ refers to our estimates of excess registration in older ages (5+ years), calculated relative to expected baseline registrations derived from weekly registration patterns in the <5 years age group, assuming that these baseline estimates reflect underlying non-COVID-19 deaths across all ages. ^b‘Mortality’ refers to our estimates of excess mortality assuming changes in <5 years mortality are driven by changes in the likelihood that deaths are reported rather than underlying changes in non-COVID-19 deaths. ^c‘Capture’ refers to the proportion of deaths in Lusaka typically captured within the system prior to the pandemic. ^*refers to the percentage of all registrations/deaths within a given time-period which were deemed excess. Highlighted in bold and/or italics are results using our default assumptions that 90% of underlying mortality is captured by pre-pandemic burial registration.

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