Fig. 1: Observed and expected deaths.
From: Attributed causes of excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in a south Indian city
We plot observed and expected deaths as well as total excess deaths estimated to have occurred during the analysis period of March 2020 to July 2021, including for all settings (A, B), deaths in healthcare facilities (C, D), and deaths in community settings (E, F). Panels illustrating observed and expected deaths (A, C, E) present observed deaths as red points with accompanying red lines indicating 14-day moving average values. Expected deaths (sampled via Poisson distributions fitted with 2-week moving-average mortality rates from 2018–19, accounting for changes in population size [Table S19]) are presented as black lines (median estimates) along with 95% uncertainty intervals (gray shading). Panels illustrating total excess deaths (difference of observed deaths minus expected deaths; B, D, F) present 14-day moving average values as black lines (median estimates) along with 95% uncertainty intervals (gray shading). Accompanying red lines illustrate 2-week moving averages of total deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the medically certified cause of death data; blue lines indicate 2-week moving averages of deaths among individuals with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection occurring within <30 days of the positive test date. We plot corresponding age- and sex-stratified comparisons of observed and expected deaths in Fig. S1.
