Table 3 Temporal association of excess mortality, by attributed cause, with deaths attributed to or associated with COVID-19

From: Attributed causes of excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in a south Indian city

Cause

Pearson correlation coefficient, \(\rho\) (95% uncertainty interval)

Deaths attributed to COVID-19

Deaths among confirmed COVID-19 cases

All deaths

Deaths in healthcare facilities

Deaths in the community

All deaths

Deaths in healthcare facilities

Deaths in the community

Infections (other than COVID-19) and maternal diseases

  Lower respiratory tract infections

0.52 (0.50, 0.54)

0.56 (0.54, 0.58)

0.09 (0.03, 0.15)

0.59 (0.57, 0.61)

0.61 (0.59, 0.63)

0.17 (0.12, 0.22)

  Tuberculosis

−0.17 (−0.22, −0.12)

−0.04 (−0.09, 0.02)

−0.21 (−0.25, −0.17)

−0.10 (−0.15, −0.05)

−0.03 (−0.09, 0.02)

−0.11 (−0.16, −0.07)

  Diarrhea and gastrointestinal infections

0.12 (0.08, 0.16)

−0.04 (−0.08, 0.01)

0.14 (0.09, 0.17)

0.18 (0.16, 0.20)

0.03 (0.02, 0.05)

0.18 (0.16, 0.20)

  Syphilis and other genitourinary diseases

0.01 (−0.04, 0.05)

−0.12 (−0.18, −0.07)

0.08 (0.03, 0.12)

0.06 (0.01, 0.10)

−0.02 (−0.05, 0.01)

0.08 (0.03, 0.13)

  Other infectious diseases

0.08 (0.03, 0.13)

−0.09 (−0.17, −0.02)

0.14 (0.10, 0.17)

0.08 (0.03, 0.12)

−0.11 (−0.20, −0.03)

0.14 (0.12, 0.16)

  Maternal and perinatal diseases

0.04 (0.00, 0.08)

0.02 (−0.01, 0.05)

0.04 (−0.01, 0.09)

−0.01 (−0.07, 0.04)

0.01 (−0.02, 0.03)

−0.02 (−0.10, 0.05)

 Total

0.67 (0.66, 0.69)

−0.16 (−0.23, −0.09)

0.69 (0.68, 0.70)

0.55 (0.53, 0.56)

−0.19 (−0.27, −0.11)

0.56 (0.55, 0.58)

Noncommunicable diseases

  Cardiovascular/cerebrovascular conditions

0.54 (0.53, 0.56)

−0.22 (−0.24, −0.19)

0.64 (0.63, 0.65)

0.52 (0.50, 0.52)

−0.09 (−0.12, −0.06)

0.58 (0.57, 0.59)

  Chronic liver disease

−0.03 (−0.08, 0.02)

−0.07 (−0.11, −0.03)

0.02 (−0.03, 0.08)

−0.03 (−0.09, 0.02)

−0.03 (−0.07, 0.01)

−0.02 (−0.08, 0.04)

  Cancer

0.04 (0.02, 0.05)

−0.22 (−0.27, −0.17)

0.08 (0.07, 0.10)

−0.11 (−0.13, −0.10)

−0.16 (−0.21, −0.10)

−0.09 (−0.11, −0.07)

  Diabetes mellitus

0.35 (0.31, 0.39)

−0.15 (−0.20, −0.11)

0.49 (0.46, 0.52)

0.41 (0.37, 0.44)

−0.20 (−0.25, −0.16)

0.59 (0.56, 0.62)

  Other noncommunicable diseases

−0.09 (−0.12, −0.06)

0.03 (−0.03, 0.08)

−0.09 (−0.13, −0.06)

−0.20 (−0.24, −0.17)

−0.02 (−0.08, 0.04)

−0.20 (−0.24, −0.17)

 Total

0.54 (0.53, 0.56)

0.22 (0.24, −0.19)

0.64 (0.63, 0.65)

0.52 (0.50, 0.52)

0.09 (0.12, −0.06)

0.58 (0.57, 0.59)

Injuries

  Unintentional

−0.31 (−0.35, −0.26)

−0.22 (−0.27, −0.17)

−0.26 (−0.31, −0.21)

−0.23 (−0.28, −0.19)

−0.13 (−0.17, −0.08)

−0.25 (−0.30, −0.20)

  Intentional (suicide, homicide)

−0.19 (−0.24, −0.14)

0.01 (−0.05, 0.07)

−0.20 (−0.24, −0.15)

−0.19 (−0.24, −0.14)

0.04 (−0.02, 0.09)

−0.20 (−0.25, −0.15)

 Total

−0.31 (−0.35, −0.26)

−0.22 (−0.27, −0.17)

−0.26 (−0.31, −0.21)

−0.23 (−0.28, −0.19)

−0.13 (−0.17, −0.08)

−0.25 (−0.30, −0.20)

Other or unclassified causes

  Senility

0.67 (0.66, 0.69)

−0.16 (−0.23, −0.09)

0.69 (0.68, 0.70)

0.55 (0.53, 0.56)

−0.19 (−0.27, −0.11)

0.56 (0.55, 0.58)

  Other unclassified causes

0.58 (0.58, 0.58)

0.40 (0.39, 0.41)

0.66 (0.65, 0.66)

0.45 (0.44, 0.45)

0.23 (0.22, 0.24)

0.55 (0.55, 0.56)

  1. Values indicate Pearson correlation coefficients relating two-week moving averages of excess deaths for each attributed cause, stratified by setting, to two-week moving averages of variables measuring deaths attributed to COVID-19 in medically-certified cause-of-death data (left columns) and deaths occurring within 30 days after a positive test result for confirmed COVID-19 cases (right columns). Uncertainty intervals are generated via independent draws from the distribution of the cause-specific excess mortality variable, generated by sampling from Poisson distributions parameterized with 2018–19 mortality rates and accounting for expected changes in population size (Table S19). Bold text indicates totals across rows.