Fig. 2: The evolution of the first neutral mode (NM1) projections in CESM-SMILEs.
From: Robust projection of East Asian summer monsoon rainfall based on dynamical modes of variability
Left panels: projections of the June–July–August (JJA) seasonal mean precipitation onto the NM1 pattern over East Asia, or the NM1 index. Right panels: The std of summer daily NM1 index. Solid line in each left (right) panel is the ensemble mean projection (ensemble mean of the std of the daily NM1 index). The shading indicates the range of the one std of the ensemble members of each individual ensemble. A gray bar in each panel demarcates the boundary between the “historical” and “future” periods of the simulations. The side box in each panel shows the mean and spread (represented by one std) of the near-term (2021–2040, green), mid-term (2041–2060, blue), and long-term (2080–2100, red) projections. Note the different scales shown on the y axis of each panel.
