Fig. 1: Model-predicted epidemic dynamics of the Omicron variant in China.
From: Swift and extensive Omicron outbreak in China after sudden exit from ‘zero-COVID’ policy
a The model-inferred daily cases (orange bands) during the three policy periods (zero-COVID, 20 Measures, and 10 Measures) near the end of 2022, and official case counts (points). Shades of orange show the median, 50% credibility interval (CrI), and 95% CrI. b Survey results, interpreted as population size, compared against model-predicted values for those survey categories on Dec. 26. Dashed lines are the data, and shaded curves are the posterior distribution of expected number of individuals. c Estimates of the intrinsic rate of increase, r, and reproductive number, Rexp during the exponential growth of each time period. From the model fit, points are the median, thick lines are the 50% CrI, and thin lines are the 95% CrI. d Model-inferred epidemic dynamics during 10 Measures. The median, 50% CrI, and 95% CrI are shown for people in the model’s susceptible (S), exposed (E), infected (I), and recovered (R) states (cf. Fig. 2).
