Fig. 1: Relationship between immunity levels and vaccine effectiveness.
From: Estimating long-term vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 variants: a model-based approach
Dose–response curves estimated from fitting to vaccine effectiveness data for the relationship between immunity level (IL, x-axis) and vaccine effectiveness against mild disease (A, D), hospitalisation (B, E) and death (C, F). Panels (A–C) show vaccine effectiveness against the Delta variant whilst panels (D–F) show vaccine effectiveness against the Omicron/BA.1 variant. The solid lines show the posterior median estimates and colour bands the 95% credible interval from our model fitted to the data on vaccine effectiveness against each variant. The dotted lines show the dose–response curves that would be projected using the original efficacy model presented in Khoury et al.14 which fitted the relationship between NAT and clinical endpoints against the ancestral virus and adjusting for the Delta and Omicron variants respectively by using the variant fold reductions (VFRs) from immunogenicity data reported in Cromer et al. and Khoury et al.15,16.
