Fig. 2: Projected vaccine effectiveness over time (in days) since the first vaccine dose for combinations of schedules for the Oxford/AstraZeneca AZD1222 (AZ), Pfizer-BioNTech BNT162b2 (PF) and Moderna mRNA-1273 (MD) vaccines.

Plots show immunity level (IL) in the left column, alongside effectiveness against mild disease, hospitalisation, and death on the right. Neutralisation and protection against the Delta and Omicron variants are shown in red and blue respectively. Seven regimens are shown: AZ delivered for three doses (AZ–AZ); two doses of AZ and a third dose of PF (AZ–PF); two doses of AZ and a third dose of MD (AZ–MD); PF delivered for three doses (PF-PF); two doses of PF and a third dose of MD (PF-MD); two doses of MD and a third dose of PF (MD–PF); and MD delivered for three doses (MD–MD). The solid lines show the posterior median fitted model estimate, and the points show mean estimates of vaccine effectiveness (and associated 95% confidence intervals) against three endpoints using data from England^23,24,25. Where estimates were only available stratified by age group, the data are from the 65+ age group. Sample sizes for each of the 143 data points vary according to the uptake of combinations and length of follow-up; these are provided in the data files.