Table 2 Estimated vaccine effectiveness against mild disease, hospitalisation and death for Oxford/AstraZeneca AZD1222, Pfizer-BioNTech BNT162b2 and Moderna mRNA-1273 vaccine regimens as a function of time since dose 2 or dose 3

From: Estimating long-term vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 variants: a model-based approach

Vaccine

Days post dose 2

Days post dose 3

90

180

30

60

90

120

150

180

365

Mild disease

Oxford/AstraZeneca AZD1222

12 (11.5–12.4)

6.1 (5.8–6.4)

42.4 (35.8–48.9)

29.9 (24.4–35.7)

21.6 (17.2–26.4)

16.5 (13–20.4)

13.4 (10.4–16.8)

11.6 (8.9–14.5)

7.5 (5.4–9.8)

Moderna mRNA-1273

33.3 (32.1–34.1)

19.3 (18.1–20)

63.8 (62.6–64.3)

50.5 (49.1–51.4)

39.7 (38.2–40.7)

32.1 (30.6–33.1)

27.1 (25.7–28.1)

23.9 (22.5–24.9)

16.3 (13.7–17.9)

Pfizer-BioNTech BNT162b2

24.9 (24.1–25.4)

13.7 (12.9–14.1)

57.1 (56.2–57.4)

43.5 (42.5–44.1)

33.2 (32.1–33.9)

26.3 (25.3–27)

22 (20.9–22.6)

19.2 (18.1–19.9)

12.9 (10.6–14.2)

Hospitalisation

Oxford/AstraZeneca AZD1222

50.7 (48.9–52.1)

32.9 (30.9–34.4)

84.7 (80.7–88)

76.2 (70.8–80.8)

67.4 (61–73.1)

59.8 (52.6–66.2)

53.9 (46.6–60.6)

49.7 (42.2–56.5)

38 (29.8–45.3)

Moderna mRNA-1273

79 (77.5–80)

64.2 (61.7–65.9)

93 (92.4–93.3)

88.5 (87.6–89)

83.2 (81.9–84.1)

78 (76.4–79.2)

73.7 (71.7–75)

70.3 (68–71.8)

59.5 (53.9–62.7)

Pfizer-BioNTech BNT162b2

71.4 (69.9–72.5)

54.3 (52–55.9)

90.9 (90.3–91.3)

85.3 (84.3–85.9)

78.9 (77.6–79.8)

72.9 (71.2–74)

67.9 (65.8–69.2)

64.1 (61.7–65.7)

52.6 (46.9–56)

Death

Oxford/AstraZeneca AZD1222

50 (46–53.8)

32.3 (28.8–35.9)

84.4 (79.3–87.8)

75.8 (68.9–80.7)

66.8 (58.9–72.9)

59.1 (50.8–66)

53.3 (44.6–60.5)

49 (40.3–56.3)

37.4 (28.8–44.8)

Moderna mRNA-1273

78.6 (75.5–81.1)

63.6 (59.2–67)

92.8 (91.6–93.7)

88.2 (86.4–89.6)

82.8 (80.3–84.9)

77.6 (74.4–80.1)

73.2 (69.5–75.9)

69.7 (65.7–72.7)

58.9 (52.3–63.6)

Pfizer-BioNTech BNT162b2

70.8 (67.3–73.9)

53.7 (49.3–57.3)

90.7 (89.1–91.8)

85 (82.7–86.6)

78.5 (75.5–80.8)

72.4 (68.8–75.2)

67.4 (63.4–70.5)

63.5 (59.3–66.9)

52 (45.4–56.6)

  1. Estimates are shown for the Omicron variant with the ancestral vaccines; estimates for the Delta variant are shown in Table S2. The values are shown for each vaccine for dose 2 or dose 3; as the dose 3 estimates do not depend on dose 2 values, the estimates are applicable to either homologous or heterologous dosing. Values shown are the posterior median and 95% credible intervals. The comparator group is those who did not receive any vaccine dose. Bold indicates projected vaccine effectiveness beyond the time period of the data to which the model was fitted.
Back to article page