Table 3 Projected vaccine effectiveness against mild disease, hospitalisation and death from BA.1 for an ancestral vaccine (mRNA.1273) and variant-adapted vaccine as a function of time since a fourth dose
From: Estimating long-term vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 variants: a model-based approach
Vaccine | Days post 4th dose | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
30 | 60 | 90 | 120 | 150 | 180 | 365 | |
Mild disease | |||||||
Moderna mRNA.1273 | 63.8 (62.6–64.3) | 50.5 (49.1–51.4) | 39.7 (38.2–40.7) | 32.1 (30.6–33.1) | 27.1 (25.7–28.1) | 23.9 (22.5–24.9) | 16.3 (13.7–17.9) |
Variant-adapted vaccine | 78.9 (78–82.4) | 68.4 (67.2–73.1) | 58.2 (56.8–63.7) | 50 (48.6–55.7) | 44.1 (42.5–49.7) | 39.9 (38.3–45.4) | 29.3 (26.3–34.9) |
Hospitalisation | |||||||
Moderna mRNA.1273 | 93 (92.4–93.3) | 88.5 (87.6–89) | 83.2 (81.9–84.1) | 78 (76.4–79.2) | 73.7 (71.7–75) | 70.3 (68–71.8) | 59.5 (53.9–62.7) |
Variant-adapted vaccine | 96.6 (96.3–97.3) | 94.2 (93.8–95.4) | 91.3 (90.8–93) | 88.3 (87.5–90.6) | 85.6 (84.6–88.3) | 83.4 (82.2–86.5) | 75.7 (72.3–80.4) |
Death | |||||||
Moderna mRNA.1273 | 92.8 (91.6–93.7) | 88.2 (86.4–89.6) | 82.8 (80.3–84.9) | 77.6 (74.4–80.1) | 73.2 (69.5–75.9) | 69.7 (65.7–72.7) | 58.9 (52.3–63.6) |
Variant-adapted vaccine | 96.5 (96–97.4) | 94.1 (93.3–95.5) | 91.1 (90–93.2) | 88 (86.5–90.7) | 85.3 (83.5–88.6) | 83 (80.9–86.7) | 75.2 (71.4–80.8) |
